Upbeat music plays.
[Screen shows “Weekly Market Outlook with Jeffrey Kleintop”]
[Jeff holds up an illustration of an alarm clock labelled “CPI”]
This week the U.S. reports inflation data, key updates are due on China’s economy, and earnings season arrives with major Wall Street bank earnings. I’m Jeff Kleintop with what you need to know for the week ahead.
On Wednesday, the U.S. reports CPI for December and may again show that reports of inflation’s death are exaggerated. Economists expect U.S. CPI to rise for the third month in a row from 2.7% last month to 2.9% in December. The minutes of the December FOMC meeting indicated it’s not just the stubborn rebound in the pace of inflation, another reason Fed policymakers have become more hawkish is that they’re factoring assumptions in about the incoming Trump administration’s tariff, deportation, and fiscal policies into their baseline outlook.
Now we start to get inundated with earnings
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a person wearing winter gear holding a sign labelled “Earnings Season”]
as the reporting season kicks off Wednesday with reports from the financial sector. Banks including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs are going to report on Wednesday, and Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow on Thursday. Analysts expect them to show continued gains from trading and investment banking, which helped offset net interest income declines caused by higher deposits and sluggish loan demand. Business leaders will likely be asked about the 2025 outlook, with last Friday’s jobs report further signaling the Fed may make just one, if any, rate cuts this year, which could stunt future profit growth.
Oh, and on Friday,
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a dragon “China”]
China reports GDP, property prices, retail sales, and industrial production for December. That’s the last update for this data until mid-March. China’s economic data is often combined for January and February and not released until March since the week-long Lunar New Year holiday often sees a surge in manufacturing, industrial and export activity in advance of the national production shutdown, bringing a sharp rise in consumer spending and tourism that then takes place during that shutdown which then falls off between late January and early February. Anyway, it results in crucial monthly statistics being delayed by a month and subject to wide swings. So, this is the last update for a couple of months just as China’s slowing economy might be starting to see some signs of stabilization.
[Jeff holds up sign saying "Thank You"]
Thanks for watching.
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